Of Players and Formations

The Serbian national team will embark on its Euro 2012 preparations with a friendly against Greece on August 11 in Belgrade. The Beli Orlovi will face a relatively competitive, though by no means impossible qualification group, pitted against Italy, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia and the Faroe Islands. And with the 2010 World Cup in South Africa settling into the annals of history, national team coach Radomir Antic is certainly thinking about his player selection and formations for the new competitive cycle.

Serbian FA officials, coaching staff, players, fans and the media have been in relative agreement regarding the fact that the current crop of Serbian players may in fact reach their zenit at Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. The real question is whether changes in the squad should be kept to a minimum, made in certain strategic areas, or lead to a complete overhaul of the roster? Soccer Serbia supports the second, and most sensible option: that Antic change his squad selection in certain positions, while retaining the core of the 2010 World Cup squad.

The reasons why Serbia did not reach the second round of competition in South Africa are a matter for another article, but what is certain is that the national team was relatively impotent in the final third of the field. Able to maintain respectable possession in midfield against opponents of different styles, the team proceeded to create several "100%" chances per game, only to repeatedly trip up at the final hurdle and blast their efforts wide or directly at opposing goalkeepers. This type of problem necessitates not only a new crop of strikers, but perhaps even a new offensive philosophy.

The 4-2-3-1 formation was used very successfully by World Cup finalists the Netherlands and eventual winners Spain. What makes this formation potent is the fact that a team can afford to give its four most talented attacking players the freedom to create at will. Backed by a four-man back line and two central defensive midfielders, the attacking quartet in this formation features two wingers, a central "creator" and a mobile centre forward. The attacking players are spaced in a dynamic way that allows the offensive threat to come either from the middle, the wings, or a "cut" to the inside. And there is nothing preventing a team from utilizing other advantages, such as tall defenders, from indirect free kicks and corners.

How does this formation fit with the Serbian team? Antic utilized various versions of it in the games against Germany and Australia, but Soccer Serbia would suggest that the "right" players were not necessarily in the "right" positions. In fact, the 4-2-3-1 appears to fit perfectly with the Serbian team, which has a world class back line, abundant defensive midfielders and talented attacking wingers. The striker problem can be circumvented by selecting the most in-form attacker and deploying him at the center forward position, thus ending debates about which players should feature in a two-man front line.

This, along with selection changes to compensate for club form and injury status, forms the basis of Soccer Serbia's simultaneous presentation of the Serbian player pool for Euro 2012 qualifying and the formation that should be used by the Beli Orlovi to deploy these players. Here, then, is the full list of the pool as it stands; first the suggested starters, then the suggested bench players, and finally the players that should be outside of the squad as the current situation stands due to a lack of club form. Player age and club team are included for reference purposes.

Suggested Starters: 4-2-3-1 Formation
GK Bojan Jorgacevic (28) / Gent, BEL
CB Neven Subotic (21) / Borussia Dortmund, GER
CB Nemanja Vidic [C] (28) / Manchester United, ENG
RB Branislav Ivanovic (26) / Chelsea, ENG
LB Aleksandar Kolarov (24) / Manchester City, ENG
DM Gojko Kacar (23) / Hertha Berlin, GER
DM Zdravko Kuzmanovic (22) / Stuttgart, GER
RW Milos Krasic (25) / CSKA Moscow, RUS
LW Zoran Tosic (23) / CSKA Moscow, RUS
AM Bosko Jankovic (26) / Genoa, ITA
ST Milan Jovanovic (29) / Liverpool, ENG

Suggested Bench Players By Position
GK Zeljko Brkic (23) / Vojvodina Novi Sad, SRB
GK Vladimir Stojkovic (26) / Wigan Athletic, ENG
CB Aleksandar Lukovic (27) / Udinesse, ITA
CB Slobodan Rajkovic (21) / FC Twente, NED
CB/RB Jagos Vukovic (22) / PSV Eindhoven, NED
LB Ivan Obradovic (21) / Real Zaragoza, ESP
CM Milos Ninkovic (25) / Dynamo Kyiv, UKR
CM Nemanja Matic (21) / Chelsea, ENG
WM Adem Ljajic (18) / Fiorentina, ITA
AM/ST Dragan Mrdja (26) / Vojvodina Novi Sad, SRB
AM/ST Miralem Sulejmani (21) / Ajax Amsterdam, NED
ST Dejan Lekic (25) / Osasuna, ESP

*Average Age of Starters: 25 (by Euro 2012: 27)
*Average Age of Bench: 23 (by Euro 2012: 25)
*Average Age of 23-man Squad: 24 (by Euro 2012: 26)

Reserve Players (Partial List)
GK Bojan Isailovic (30) / Zagleblie, POL
GK Andjelko Djurcic (29) / Uniao Lieria, POR
CB Ivica Dragutinovic (34) / Sevilla, ESP
RB Antonio Rukavina (26) / 1860 Munich, GER
LB Marko Lomic (26) / Dynamo Moscow, RUS
CM Dejan Stankovic (31) / Inter Milan, ITA
CM Nenad Milijas (27) / Wolverhampton, ENG
CM Radoslav Petrovic (21) / Partizan Belgrade, SRB
ST Nikola Zigic (29) / Birmingham City, ENG
ST Marko Pantelic (31) / Free Agent
ST Danko Lazovic (27) / Zenit St. Petersburg, RUS
ST Danijel Aleksic (19) / Genoa, ITA

There you have it: Soccer Serbia suggests a realistic alteration of the national team that accomplishes several goals at once. It clears older and physically unprepared players out of the squad, ensures that the team continues to build for the future, forces those with poor club form to prove their worth, and attempts to be more mobile and direct in the opponent's third of the field, while retaining the defensive stability that is characteristic of a squad with a world class back line. If the Serbian team actually adopted this philosophy, qualification for Euro 2012 would not be in doubt. Even if the Beli Orlovi finished second behind Italy and had to go through the play-offs, the potential opposition in that round does not cause any real concern, especially considering that Serbia would likely be a seeded playoff team.

Of course, we at Soccer Serbia are realists, and know that it is highly unlikely that Antic will adopt all of the changes we suggested. It is likely that Stankovic will be allowed to chase the national team caps record; that Stojkovic will be kept in the goalkeeper position even if he does not improve his club form; and that at least one of the unsuccessful attacking trio of Zigic - Pantelic - Lazovic will be called back to the team. But what Soccer Serbia can hope - as with any pundits who make extreme suggestions to "force" their point - is that at least some of the things outlined in this article will happen. That Jorgacevic will be given a chance to compete for the goalkeeper position; that the squad will be made younger to assure a base beyond Euro 2012; and that new strikers will be given an opportunity to shine. After all, they can only improve on the incompetent displays we saw in the 16-yard box in South Africa.

Cherry on our European cake?

Several regional sports outlets reported today, citing German-based news agency Deutsche Welle, that Balkan neighbours Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina may pose a joint candidature to co-host Euro 2020. This prospect has been discussed informally for years by regional soccer fans and, after Croatia’s unsuccessful bid to co-host Euro 2012 with Hungary, the door may be open for a new attempt that promotes “good neighbourly relations” in Southeast Europe.

Continental governing body UEFA would likely support such a proposal, given President Michel Platini’s affinity for developing smaller markets and the symbolic value of having the noted countries co-host the tournament nearly 30 years after the conclusion of the conflict in the former Yugoslavia. But according to regional media, all parties involved have conceded that finances will play the deciding role in whether a joint candidature would be posed.

In addition, regional governments would almost certainly need to offer their backing in order for such a proposal to materialize. Given that the host countries would play the vast majority of their games in their home nation, security does not appear to pose a problem at first glance. What, then, are the key determining variables that will shape this idea in the years to come?

The History

Red Star Stadium in Belgrade, Serbia previously hosted the 1972-73 European Champions Cup final between Ajax and Juventus, as well as co-hosting the 1976 UEFA European Championship (at that time, a four-team tournament) with Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb, Croatia. In addition, Kosevo Stadium in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina previously hosted the 1984 Olympic Games. With no major international soccer tournaments held on the territory of the former Yugoslavia since 1976, the Euro 2020 roposal has historical connotations - made all the more significant by the well-known tensions that existed between the three neighbouring states throughout the 1990s and beyond. Co-hosting Euro 2020 would certainly go a long way toward showing the world that the region has grown beyond its former problems. Soccer remains by far the most popular sport in the region, and demand to attend the event would come from domestic fans, the diaspora and international fans alike.

The Logistics

Beginning with Euro 2016 in France, the European Championship will consist of 24 teams rather than the current 16. The teams will be placed in six groups of four – ideal for a tournament co-organized among three neighbours, with each country hosting a number of matches equivalent to two full groups (12 matches each, including three each played by the host nations) in the opening phase. The fifteen knockout round fixtures, beginning with the round of 16, could again be split evenly – though selecting a host venue for the final would certainly be a major point of debate between the countries concerned.

The expansion to 24 teams would allow Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina to qualify for the tournament automatically as co-hosts, without jeopardizing the quality of the competition. The Euro 2020 qualifying would feature the remaining 50 UEFA member associations vying for 21 additional spots in the tournament. The most likely qualifying format would feature nine groups in total (five groups of six teams and four groups of five teams), with the nine winners and runners-up qualifying automatically. The six best third-placed teams would then play-off to determine the three remaining qualifiers.

The Requirements

For Euro 2016 in France, presumably to remain consistent for future editions of the 24-team competition, UEFA has specified the following stadium requirements:

• 2 stadia with 50,000 seats;
• 3 stadia with 40,000 seats;
• 4 stadia with 30,000 seats.

For Euro 2020, the three co-hosts would therefore presumably offer three stadiums each, for a total of nine. Let’s take a look at the current soccer infrastructure available in Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Serbia presently possesses only two stadia with a capacity higher than 30,000 spectators, and both are located in the capital of Belgrade: Red Star Stadium (54,000) and Partizan Stadium (30,887). Both facilities have long-standing renovation plans that would have to take effect in order to assure adequate, modern infrastructure for the tournament. The Serbian FA also plans to build a new “Stadium Serbia”, presumably to complement the new FA Headquarters in the town of Stara Pazova. The proposed stadium would have a capacity of 80,000, and the FA is counting on financial assistance from FIFA and UEFA in order to realize the project.

Croatia possesses only two stadia that meet the UEFA capacity requirements: Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb (38,923) and Poljud Stadium in Split (35,000). Bosnia-Herzegovina has only one facility that qualifies: Kosevo Stadium in Sarajevo (37,500), though Bilino Polje Stadium in Zenica has a theoretical maximum capacity of 35,000. Both countries would therefore need to renovate their existing stadia (with Maksimir and Bilino Polje the most likely candidates for upgrades to fit more than 40,000 spectators), and both would need to offer at least one new stadium (preferably with a capacity of at least 50,000) in order to link up with Serbia and meet UEFA’s nine-stadium requirement. Presuming a similar preparation deadline to that of Euro 2016, the stadia in all three host nations would have to be ready by 30 June 2018 – two years prior to the start of the tournament.

The Conclusion

A proposal to co-host an international tournament shared among the republics of the former Yugoslavia will almost certainly happen in the future, just as the proposal to form a joint soccer league. Whether or not this is feasible by 2020 will be determined largely by financial factors, as each country would have to rennovate two stadia and build at least one more in order to satisfy UEFA requirements.

As has been demonstrated by the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, proposals to host major tournaments in formerly volatile or less-developed regions of the world require the full backing of FIFA and/or UEFA, and this may well be the determining factor in whether Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina formally pose their candidature for Euro 2020. If the Poland-Ukraine co-hosting bid for Euro 2012 is any indication, the countries concerned will have to fulfill their infrastructure-related commitments or will risk having the event moved to an emergency location.

Stay tuned for more news as they occur...

Will History Repeat itself?

Ask most of my friends and they will tell you that I often look at statistics and patterns and the World Cup is often oozing with both. On the other hand, this World Cup in South Africa has seen more trends/patterns being broken rather than continuing. With three of the four remaining teams left in the World Cup playing in UEFA, the likelihood of a European Team finally winning the Trophy outside of Europe seems very likely. We can't forget that this is the first World Cup that the host team (South Africa) has failed to go beyond the group stage.

Another broken trend: this is the first World Cup that ends in a 0 (excluding 1950 which was only the fourth ever World Cup Final) where the final four teams were not previous Winners (1970 = Brazil, Italy, West Germany, Uruguay & 1990 = West Germany, Argentina, Italy, England). In the past, there has always been at least one team to finish in the top four that has never won the title before.

As you can see, there are a lot of patterns when looking at the World Cup and there are two more in particular that should be worth noting.

The first revolves around all four of the remaining teams. The last time a team lost a match in the group stage and went on to win the World Cup was 1978's Argentina; they lost a meaningless match against Italy (at that point both teams were already advancing to the next stage)before going on to lift the trophy. Since then, every team that has won the World Cup has along the way either won or drawn their matches. With that trend, the likely winner of this World Cup would have to be The Netherlands who are the only team without a blemish on their record. (We could also view the Dutch as playing at home considering the historical connection they have with South Africa)

But the other interesting statistic and the one that this Post is about, is the connection Germany and Serbia have in World Cup matches. For the following, we are looking at all iterations of both countries (eg. West Germany, FSR Yugoslavia, FS Yugoslavia and Serbia & Montenegro) as FIFA still connects West Germany's matches to Germany and Yugoslavia's matches to Serbia.

• 1954 - Quarter-finals - Yugoslavia v West Germany 0:2 - Germany Wins World Cup
• 1958 - Quarter-finals - West Germany v Yugoslavia 1:0 - Germany finishes 4th
• 1962 - Quarter-finals - West Germany v Yugoslavia 0:1 - Yugoslavia finishes 4th
• 1966 - Yugoslavia fails to reach World Cup - Germany Loses in Final to England
• 1970 - Yugoslavia fails to reach World Cup - Germany finishes 3rd
• 1974 - Second Round Group Stage - Yugoslavia v West Germany 0:2 - Germany Wins World Cup
• 1978 - Yugoslavia fails to reach World Cup - Germany does not progress past the 2nd Round
• 1982 - Both teams reach World Cup but do not meet - Germany loses in Final to Italy
• 1986 - Yugoslavia fails to reach World Cup - Germany loses in Final to Argentina
• 1990 - Group Stage - West Germany v Yugoslavia 4:1 - Germany Wins World Cup
• 1994 - Yugoslavia is banned from the Tournament - Germany loses in Quarter-finals to Bulgaria
• 1998 - Group Stage - Germany v Yugoslavia 2:2 - Germany loses in Quarter-finals to Croatia
• 2002 - Yugoslavia fails to reach World Cup - Germany loses in Final to Brazil
• 2006 - Both Teams (Yugoslavia is now Serbia & Montenegro) reach World Cup but do not meet - Germany finishes 3rd
• 2010 - Group Stage - Germany v Serbia 0:1 - Germany TBD

At present, these two nations have met seven times with Germany winning four of those matches. Of those four victories, they have gone on to win the World Cup Three times, with the only blemish being in 1958 when the Germans lost to hosts Sweden in the Semis. Germany has only ever won the World Cup when they have defeated Yugoslavia en-route, as evidence with losses in the Finals in 1966, 1982, 1986 and 2002. In three of the four times Germany has reached the finals and lost, Yugoslavia failed to reach the World Cup.

Now with these two nations having met a few weeks ago, the Serbs recorded their first win against the Germans in a World Cup match in over 50 years; what does this mean for Germany and the quest for glory? If the trend is to continue, the Germans should either lose their upcoming Semi-final match against Spain or in the Finals to either The Netherlands or Uruguay. Or could we see this, like so many other trends, being broken? The answer to our question could be a few days away.

Welcome to Soccer Serbia!

Welcome to Soccer Serbia, the ultimate English-language blog on all subjects related to Serbian soccer! The three contributors to Soccer Serbia all have experience playing the beautiful game and possess a long-standing passion for all things related to its development in their home nation. While we have not always agreed on all issues, we have continuously stimulated interesting discussions regarding Serbia's pursuit of glory on both the club and international levels.

Marko Djordjevic is a statistical expert who never allows a detail to go unnoticed. A "jack of all trades" in the Serbian soccer realm, he is especially knowledgeable on Serbian club football, business and infrastructure.

Milan Ducic takes a cool-headed approach, rarely allowing his expectations to go beyond what is realistic. He merges a keen eye for strategy and tactics with the unique ability to provide a "sober second thought" on all issues.

Uros Maksimovic is typically the most analytical of the trio, synthesizing a knowledge of Serbian soccer history with the ability to be a "big picture" thinker and draw lessons from the experiences of Serbian teams.

The Soccer Serbia writers hope to put out a quality product that will make our readers think. This will not be a summary page for domestic or international Serbian soccer results; it will be a forum for analytical thinking, unique perspectives, and historical and statistical discussions "with a twist". That is why Soccer Serbia will focus on four main categories of articles:

National Team: Everything to do with the Beli Orlovi. From the analysis of national team games, schedules, qualifying campaigns and performances at major tournaments, to discussions regarding players, strategy and tactics, Soccer Serbia will write about what every Serbian fan is thinking about!

History and Statistics: Articles in this category will usually be presented in special series that analyze historical players, coaches, games, tournaments, time periods and all statistical matters. Based on these analyses, the writers will attempt to draw lessons that are useful to Serbian club and international soccer today.

Club Football: Identifying major trends in the performance of Serbian clubs at both the domestic and European levels, articles in this category will always seek to offer a unique perspective on how the Serbian domestic clubs and league can again climb the ladder of European success.

Business of Football: Player transfers, infrastructure projects, sponsorship deals and all other financial issues that are key to the development of soccer in Serbia, at both the club and international levels.

There you have it: Soccer Serbia is back, stronger than ever and prepared to fill the niche in English-language media coverage of the beautiful game in Serbia!

Stay tuned for much more...